Dr.Sohbet KARBUZ

01.12.2014

It was often argued that extraction and transportation of hydrocarbons may not resolve political conflicts but it could create a new window of opportunity by acting as a tool for promoting cooperation, stability, security and prosperity in the region that historically has been sensitive and, if politicians are brave enough to seize it.

But natural gas and politics can make an explosive mixture particularly in an atmosphere of reproduction of non-cooperation. This is why the resumption of negotiations on 11 February 2014 for a solution of the Cyprus problem between Turkish and Greek Cypriots on the Island under the auspices of the UN was short lived. To understand it why let us go back to September.

The Italian-Korean joint venture (ENI-KOGAS) was awarded three blocks (2, 3, and 9) within the southern part of the proclaimed Exclusive Economic Zone by the Greek Cypriot government in its second international bidding round. On 25 September 2014, the Saipem 10000 drillship has begun exploratory drilling on behalf of the consortium at a reservoir called Onasagoras in block 9.

According to the Cypriot and Greek news sources, Turkey issued (on 4 Oct 2014) a NAVTEX (a Navigational Telex) which notified seafarers that Turkey is reserving some areas south of Cyprus for carrying out seismic surveys from October 20 to December 20 of this year. Although none of the areas reserved by Turkey overlapwith any of the areas in ENI-KOGAS blocks, it created a massive reaction in Nicosia and Brussels. It is interesting that a similar NAVTEX by Turkey in 2013had not gotten much attention.

In addition, Turkey sent a research vessel (Barbaros) to conduct seismic surveys around where ENI-KOGAS consortium is already drilling and a Turkish warship was deployed to the south of Cyprus to monitor the activities of the Saipem drillship. Although this move was intended to demonstrate in a blunt way that Turkey objected to the Greek Cypriot’s efforts to unilaterally exploit hydrocarbon resources off the island, it contradicted Turkey’s New European Union Strategy, released in September 2014. In the Strategy paper it was underlined that the initiatives to be taken in scope of the strategy will not be reactive but proactive and perception-oriented to shape a correct perception in the EU public opinion. While Turkey’s unnecessary action has escalated tensions in the eastern Mediterranean, the EU opinion to it came in November in the form of European Parliament resolution on “Turkish actions creating tensions in the exclusive economic zone of Cyprus.”

Greek Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades has over-reacted to Turkey’s sending of Barbaros and warships, and suspended on 7 October 2014 peace talks with Turkish Cypriot leader Dervis Eroglu regarding the reunification of the divided island. The talks were scheduled for October 9-10, 2014.Since the failure of the Annan (reunification) plan back in 2004, the negotiations had reached such an advanced stage. Now it is put in deadlock again. According to the Greek Cypriotsthe talks between the two communities have been suspended because of “the provocative and illegal conduct of Turkey, through the unacceptable violations of the sovereign rights of the Republic of Cyprus in its EEZ.” They rule out any form of partition, and underline that only the termination of the occupation and the reunification of Cyprus and its people will bring about growth, prosperity and conditions of peace and security.

A few days before that resolution (9 November 2014), Turkish Naval Forces Commander Bülent Bostanoğlu told reportersthat the navy had been granted by the Prime Ministry new regulations for the full implementation of recently amended rules of engagement in the eastern Mediterranean that enable the forces to deal with a possible engagement with warships from other nations. Turkish Navy continues to keep the Saipem drillship under surveillance from nine kilometers distance.

The Greek Cypriots arguethat they aim at the reunification of Cyprus on the basis of a bi-zonal bi-communalfederation, with one single sovereignty, one single citizenship and one single international personality, with political equality as defined in the relevant UN resolutions. They add that through a series of resolutions, including resolutions 541 (1983) and 550 (1984), the UN Security Council condemned the unilateral declaration of KKTC by Turkey and the Turkish Cypriot leadership, characterizing it as legally invalid and calling upon all states not to recognize it.

The European Union naturally supports its member state. In every occasion, including the Turkey’s Progress Reports it underlined that “Turkey issued statements and engaged in actions challenging the Republic of Cyprus’ right to exploit hydrocarbon resources in Cyprus’ Exclusive Economic Zone.” In addition, the EU has urged Turkey to avoid any kind of threat or action directed against a Member State, or source of friction or actions, which could damage good neighborly relations and the peaceful settlement of disputes. In its communication on enlargement strategy in October 2014 the EC underlined that “Statements that are not conducive to creating a positive atmosphere in the context of the ongoing settlement talks should be avoided.”

Finally European Parliament resolution of 13 November 2014 on “Turkish actions creating tensions in the exclusive economic zone of Cyprus” strongly criticized Turkey. The resolution declared the seismic survey conducted by the Turkish vessel Barbaros in the EEZ of the Republic of Cyprus“provocative” and “illegal”.It urged Turkey to revoke its NAVTEX and demanded the immediate withdrawal of Turkish vessels from Cyprus’ EEZ. The EU Parliament resolution mentioned that “any gas finds would benefit both communities in Cyprus if a lasting, political solution can be found to end the conflict”. It also added that the continuation and/or repetition of Turkey’s actions could have a negative impact on Ankara’s relations with the EU, including its accession process.

It is a pity that both sides repeat their mistakes in the past, consciously or unconsciously. Greek Cypriot leader made a big mistake and walked away from the peace talks. He will be blamed for breaking the peace talks even though Turkey is also took part in it. Instead of playing the hardball, Turkey should have continued to play politics but unnecessary moves such as sending warships and a vessel for seismic research have damaged its image abroad.

Heads turned to the United Nations, the complaint gathering platform,as if it can do anything. Greek Cypriot President has asked the UN Secretary General’sintervention to convince Turkey to reconsider “refrain from violating Cyprus’ sovereign rights”. Turkey on the other hand expects the Greek Cypriots to “refrain from acting as if it is the sole owner of the resources of the island, to halt its unilateral research activities”. Turkey also calls on the international community “to act in order to prevent the provocative and unilateral steps” of the Greek Cypriot government. 

Turkey contests the claimed exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of the Republic of Cyprus, an EU member not recognized by Turkey. Ankara opposes the exploration and exploitation of hydrocarbons resources therein before a deal is reached to resolve the Cyprus problem saying Greek Cypriots activities disregard the rights of Turkish Cypriots to their share of profits. Greek Cypriot government (and particularly the President Anastasiades) state that potential revenues from hydrocarbons belong to all Cypriots and that both Greek and Turkish Cypriots would share in the potential natural wealth in a reunified country on the basis of population ratios.

Greek Cypriots will not give up its exploration activities, as ENI/KOGAS will proceed with four exploration drilling in 2015. They will continue to complain about Turkey’s 'provocative' and 'aggressive' plans to search hydrocarbons in its proclaimed EEZ. They will also keep repeating that their exploration activities cannot become Turkey`s hostage. At the same time, Turkey will reiterate that what they do is a clear breach of Turkish Cypriots’ rights, and will continue to invite the Greek Cypriots to give up their “unilateral and provocative actions.” And the Turkish Navy will continue “situational awareness” missions in the region.

Diplomatic relations have been hardly normal in the Eastern Mediterranean. As politics shift so do the alliances. Turkey’s souring relations with the countries in the region are causing new alliances to emerge. Although the concept that the enemy of my enemy is my friend could be a pretext, natural gas continues to play a substantial role in this new alliance building. We have witnessed in November the emergence of a concrete tripartite alliance between Greece, Greek Cyprus and Egypt. In parallel, an open alliance between Egypt and Israel is also emerging. So far, a substantial road has also been taken by the Greece, Greek Cyprus and Israel trio. A tripartite summit bringing the heads of states could be expected early next year, following the visit of Anastasiades to Israel in December.

There are several winners but only one loser in this political battle, Turkey. Despite all the rhetoric about being a regional and global leader, Turkey is indeed becoming increasingly isolated in eastern Mediterranean. At the same time, deepening relations among the quartet involving Greece, Greek Cypriots, Israel and Egypt may lead to a bloc that could jeopardize Turkey’s interests in the region.

The Summit of Heads of State/Government in Cairo on 8 November 2014 brought together the leaders of Greece, Greek Cyprus and Egypt together. The first trilateral Ministerial meeting at Energy Ministers’ level, among those three countries took place on 25 November 2014. The ministers expressedtheir readiness to examine ways and means for the optimal development of hydrocarbons. Exporting gas from Cyprus to Egypt was also discussed. Cyprus and Egypt agreedto accelerate talks on the potential export of Cypriot gas to Egypt by pipeline, once the resources come on line. This is why Egypt wantsto receive as much gas as Cyprus is able to export for domestic consumption or to feed the LNG plants for further exports.

November 25 was a special day, not because of the meeting of the energy ministers mentioned above but because it showed a solution simultaneously respecting the interests and concerns of all relevant actors cannot be found. Here is a summary of what else happened on November 25.

·       Nicos Anastasiades met with the UN Secretary-General’s Special Adviser on Cyprus, Espen Barth Eide. In his remarks to reporters Anastasiades mentionedthat “Our decision to return to the negotiating table cannot be taken while the violation of the sovereign rights of the Republic of Cyprus continues and as long as Turkey does not in fact recognize the sovereign rights of the Republic of Cyprus.”

·       Turkey's Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu warned that Turkey "would never allow" Greek Cypriots to turn the gas into "their monopoly." Davutoğlu saidthat “No one can shut us out of the Mediterranean. We may conduct drilling if necessary.” 

·       The chief Turkish Cypriot negotiator Ergun Olgun saida peace settlement in Cyprus is not possible unless Greek Cypriots cut a deal on natural gas exploration with the Turkish-Cypriots. He reiterated that hydrocarbons can't be decoupled from the negotiations and that the two sides must stop exploration and exploitation work simultaneously and create a joint committee to decide how contracts are managed and profits shared. He added that Turkish Cypriots would pursue their own exploration and exploitation activities in the north and south of the island.

Unless the Cyprus Problem is resolved, existing and possible future hydrocarbons discoveries are highly likely to become a source of serious confrontation. Yes, natural gas could be a catalyst for quickening the peace talks. Instead of taking this opportunity to settle the half a century long dispute for good, the politicians try to use it for political gains in domestic affairs. Using hateful tactics as we see in the war of words might perhaps improve the political standings of the politicians at home but are a serious obstacle to the development of energy projects in Eastern Mediterranean and hence spreading the prosperity to the people they represent.

Unfortunately, the greatest common denominator, energy, has become a main component of the geopolitical struggle today, partly because politicians continue pursuing myopic policies without regard for their consequences. All sides bear responsibility for the current situation. It is yet to be seen whether commitment of the politicians to populism will outweigh their attachment to the welfare of their people. Perhaps the short-sighted cynicism of the politicians will come back to haunt them.

A new momentum in the Cyprus problem could be created by repairing broken communication between the Greek and Turkish Cypriots. Ultimately, it is up to them to get back to the negotiation table in the spirit of no strings attached framework that would perhaps lead to a viable future.